Nigel Farage, "Brexit" and the Real Reason Why Ian Duncan-Smith Resigned

Iain Duncan-Smith MP

The recent resignation of Iain Duncan-Smith from the Conservative Cabinet and his post of Department of Works and Pensions Secretary, in my opinion, has nothing to do with an affronted Tory minister raging at the injustice of cutting the benefits of the poor and needy. I don't buy the line that, within the upper echelon of the Conservative Party, one of the most senior of their ranks has had an epiphany and decided to rail against the immorality of taking £30 a week from the Disability Benefit payments of those in dire need of this financial help. The history of Tory rule is littered with social injustices against those in need and it has emerged that they may actively discriminate against the lower paid, and those on benefits, because they are not likely to vote Conservative.

David Cameron MP

No. Blow away the smoke and dispense with the mirrors, and there is a wholly different reason for this very public stepping down from office with the resulting supposed in-fighting within the Tory ranks. Fast forwards to the morning of Friday 24th June 2016 and the reason for the shock resignation of IDS becomes all too apparent. That morning the UK will either be waking up to the status quo of membership of the European Union or the electorate may have given a resounding "No" to the question "Do you wish to remain a member of the European Union?" If the result is a victory for the "Yes" vote, then the Conservative Party will be able to hail David Cameron as the saviour of all that is true and holy regarding Great Britain's continued membership of the European Union. But, what if the "No" vote wins? What happens to Mr. Cameron then? With the Prime Minister the de facto head of the "Yes" campaign, if the the EU referendum result goes against him, he may be left having to rethink his political future with the possibility of him having to step down as leader of the Conservative Party and, therefore, his position as Prime Minister. With an overall majority in the Commons, the Conservatives would easily face down a vote of no confidence, but, out of Europe, Cameron would not be the natural leader to take the country forwards into the future with the UK going it alone outside of the EU.

Nigel Farage MEP

So, who would the Conservatives turn to? Well, for one thing, the last thing Mr. Cameron and the rest of the Tories would want on the morning of the 24th June is for there to be a definitive split between them, the "Yes" campaign and the "No" camp led by their nemesis, Nigel Farage of the United Kingdom Independence Party or UKIP. A "No" vote in such circumstances would hand the political momentum to Mr. Farage who would then hold the moral high ground over the Conservatives, a position that David Cameron could never let happen. The next best thing for the Government, therefore, would be to have a prominent Tory in the "No" camp thus diluting the "Farage Effect". But, how to do this without the electorate becoming wise to their game? Step forwards Iain Duncan-Smith, ex-leader of the Conservative Party and eurosceptic.


The Conservatives needed a ruse to allow IDS to resign with grace and have his profile raised

amongst those members of the electorate who might not normally vote Conservative and, therefore, are more likely to vote for the UK to leave the EU on 23rd June. By feigning affrontery at the proposed cuts to the Disabled Benfits Payments, Iain Duncan-Smith left the Tory front bench, freeing himself up to conduct a campaign on behalf of the Conservative Party for the "No" vote. Now, whatever the result on the morning of the 24th June, the Conservatives can claim a prominent MP in both camps, to the detriment of Nigel Farage and UKIP. Now, whatever the result, the Tories can claim that it was they who brought the "right" result to the country, not that "awful" Mr. Farage as they would have him portrayed.

Already, the Tories are reining in their criticism of Iain Duncan-Smith and dropping the proposed budgetary cuts for which he resigned. George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer is offering IDS the olive branch of peace and reconciliation and praising his former ministerial colleague for his past endeavours. The shenanigans that is being orchestrated behind the closed doors of 4, Matthew Parker Street, London SW1H 9HQ, Conservative Central Office, is putting into place contingencies for the prospect of David Cameron being defeated in his campaign for the UK to remain in the European Union. If the resounding will of the people is that the UK is to retreat from Europe, pull up the drawbridge and retire into the island fortress, then not to have a contingency plan would mean handing all the glory to Nigel Farage and UKIP - the Conservatives cannot let this happen so Iain Duncan-Smith is their man to face off with the UKIP leader in the event of a "No" vote winning.

Footnote

The above is my interpretation of recent events. I don't wish to influence anyone over their decision on which way to vote on 23rd June 2016 as everyone should cast their ballot according to their own conscience after considering all the pros and cons of the argument. However, this is probably the most important ballot that I have been part of since attaining voting rights and I would urge all those eligible to vote to do so and have a voice in the future of the UK.